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After One Small Win You Think You Get It: What Gambling Research Tells Us About Overconfidence

https://golf-wiki.win/index.php/Are_Small_Wins_Faking_Your_Understanding%3F_A_Practical_Guide_to_Fixing_Overconfidence_That_Blocks_Progress

Why a single small success makes us feel like masters - and what that cost looks like Have you ever nailed a short, easy win and then acted as if you had cracked the code? What happens next: more risk, less testing, and a faster slide into

How to Design Fair, Effective Odds for Player Decisions: A Practical Tutorial for Game Designers and Policy Analysts

https://elliotqgum692.wpsuo.com/case-study-how-a-1-200-student-district-stopped-scaring-students-about-risk-and-built-real-probabilistic-judgment

Phrases like "playing the odds" and "raising the stakes" appear regularly in policy debates and game design conversations. One moment can change everything about how a designer or policymaker sets probabilities for decisions